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A Comparative Study of Fundamental and Technical Analysis for Predicting Stock Prices in the Indian Market

Authors:

Dr. Shivani Guru - Assistant Professor, Amity Business School, Amity University Chhattisgarh

E-mail: sguru@rpr.amity.edu

Ishaan Agrawal, Student, Amity Business School, Amity University Chhattisgarh

E-mail: ishaan.agrawal@s.amity.edu

Abstract: The Indian stock market is a dynamic and ever-evolving environment where investors continuously seek strategies that improve their ability to predict future price movements. Among the many tools and methods available for analyzing securities, fundamental and technical analysis stand out as two of the most commonly used approaches. Both aim to provide investors with valuable insights that assist in making informed decisions, yet they operate through fundamentally different mechanisms. While fundamental analysis emphasizes a company’s financial strength and long-term growth potential, technical analysis is focused on identifying patterns and trends in historical price data to forecast future price behavior.

This research undertakes a comparative study of fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate their effectiveness in predicting stock prices in the Indian market. The study is based exclusively on secondary data obtained from a carefully selected sample of twenty companies representing diverse sectors such as Information Technology, Finance, Consumer Goods, and Manufacturing. Data covering a three-year period from 2021 to 2023 has been collected and analyzed using statistical tools including correlation, regression, and backtesting.

The fundamental indicators studied include Earnings Per Share (EPS), Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E), Return on Equity (ROE), and Debt-to-Equity Ratio. These metrics offer a deep understanding of a company’s financial health, efficiency, and valuation. In contrast, the technical analysis component of the study uses indicators such as Moving Averages, Relative Strength Index (RSI), Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), and Bollinger Bands.

The findings of the study reveal that fundamental analysis proves to be a more reliable method for long-term investment decisions. On the other hand, technical analysis offers superior performance in short-term trading scenarios, providing timely signals for price reversals and market trends. Most importantly, the research finds that a combined approach — utilizing both fundamental and technical analysis — results in higher prediction accuracy and better risk-adjusted returns.

This paper aims to provide a practical framework for investors, financial analysts, and portfolio managers to apply these tools effectively, based on their investment goals and time horizons. The study also contributes to academic literature by offering a structured comparison of these two widely debated methods within the context of Indian equity markets.