An Empirical Analysis of Momentum and Trend Indicators in Predicting Price Movements of Selected Stocks on the National Stock Exchange
An Empirical Analysis of Momentum and Trend Indicators in Predicting Price Movements of Selected Stocks on the National Stock Exchange
Dr. D. Chitra1, Mr. Sanjai E2
1Dr. D. Chitra, Professor, Master of Business Administration, Panimalar Engineering College, Chennai - 600 123
2Mr. Sanjai E, Student, Master of Business Administration, Panimalar Engineering College, Chennai - 600 123
ABSTRACT:This study evaluates the effectiveness of selected momentum and trend indicators in predicting stock price movements of five companies listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India — ITC Limited, Reliance Industries Limited, Infosys Limited, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), and State Bank of India (SBI). Secondary monthly price data spanning March 2024 to February 2026 were sourced from Investing.com. The analytical tools applied include the Relative Strength Index (RSI), Rate of Change (ROC), Stochastic Oscillator, Simple Moving Average (SMA), and Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Findings indicate that momentum indicators are effective in capturing short-term price dynamics and identifying overbought or oversold conditions, whereas trend indicators provide reliable directional signals for medium-to-long-term analysis. No single indicator consistently outperforms across all market conditions; however, a combined approach enhances predictive reliability and supports informed investment decision-making.Keywords: Technical Analysis, RSI, Rate of Change, Stochastic Oscillator, Moving Average, NSE, Stock Price Prediction