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“Smart Home Energy Consumption Forecasting Using LSTM”

Pratiksha Kapase

Kavita Thakare

M.Sc. (Data Science) Sem-III
Savitribai Phule Pune University

1.                Introduction

The accurate forecasting of energy consumption is a cornerstone of modern power system planning and operation. With the rapid growth of urbanization, the increasing penetration of renewable energy sources, and the evolving patterns of electricity demand, energy providers face the dual challenge of ensuring reliability while minimizing costs. Short-term forecasting, especially at an hourly resolution, is particularly critical for tasks such as load balancing, generation scheduling, and demand response management. Accurate predictions enable utilities to optimize operational strategies, reduce energy waste, and avoid costly peak-time generation.

Traditional forecasting methods, including statistical approaches like autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), exponential smoothing, and regression models, have been widely adopted in energy management. While these techniques are effective for capturing linear trends and seasonal patterns, they often fail to adequately model the complex non-linear dependencies present in high-frequency energy data. For example, hourly energy consumption exhibits intricate daily cycles, sudden spikes, and random fluctuations influenced by human behavior, weather, and industrial activity. Capturing these patterns is essential for precise forecasting.

In recent years, deep learning has emerged as a powerful alternative to traditional methods for prediction of time series. Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), and their advanced variants—Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) networks—are particularly well-suited for sequential data. These models can learn temporal dependencies over long sequences, handle non-linear relationships, and automatically extract relevant features from raw data. LSTM networks address the problem of vanishing gradients in standard RNNs, while GRU networks provide a computationally efficient alternative with comparable performance.

This study focuses on leveraging LSTM and GRU architectures for forecasting hourly energy consumption over a 31-day period. A synthetic dataset is generated to simulate realistic consumption patterns, incorporating daily usage cycles and stochastic noise to reflect real-world variability. The models are trained on sequences of 24 hours to predict the next hour’s consumption, enabling them to capture both short-term and daily patterns. Different model variants are compared in terms of prediction accuracy, using metrics such as Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and R² score.

The motivation for this research lies in its potential practical applications: reliable short-term energy forecasts can improve grid stability, support demand-side management programs, and aid in the integration of intermittent renewable energy sources such as solar and wind. Additionally, by systematically comparing LSTM and GRU models, this study provides insights into model selection and architectural choices for time series forecasting in energy systems.

The structure of the paper is as follows: Section 2 details the methodology, including data generation, normalization, sequence creation, and model architecture design. Section 3 presents experimental results, including model evaluation metrics, training-validation analysis, and prediction visualizations. Section 4 discusses the implications of the findings, the limitations of the study, and potential applications in real-world energy management. Section 5 concludes the paper and outlines directions for future work, including the use of larger datasets and hybrid deep learning approaches.

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